Actual result
R+2.8
Final polls said
R+1.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.7 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | R+8.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | RT Strategies | D+5.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 989 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-23 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | D+4.0 | 7 |