Actual result
D+2.1
Final polls said
D+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.8 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mellman Group | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | EVEN | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | RT Strategies | D+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | FM3 Research | D+8.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 984 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2006-10-21 | 400 | EVEN | 2 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Mellman Group | 2006-09-16 | 400 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| FM3 Research | 2006-09-16 | 600 | D+8.0 | 6 |