Actual result
R+9.8
Final polls said
R+7.1
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+9.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | R+9.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.6 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | R+7.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+13.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence | R+4.5 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | R+4.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+16.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-01 | 560 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 798 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence | 2006-10-27 | 400 | R+4.5 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 644 | R+7.4 | 2 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2006-10-21 | 1019 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-15 | 500 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-15 | 474 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2006-10-13 | 403 | R+16.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | R+6.2 | 4 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2006-09-30 | 625 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2006-09-23 | 882 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | R+6.5 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-18 | 500 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-17 | 472 | R+5.0 | 5 |