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Toss-up · 2006 Senate
Missouri Senate
In the 2006 Missouri Senate race, Claire McCaskill (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
D+0.9
16 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnPoint | D+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gallup | D+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | EVEN | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | Big Village | EVEN | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 7 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Los Angeles Times | R+3.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+9.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
28 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
OnPoint2006-11-061
SurveyUSA2006-11-054
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2006-11-053
Gallup2006-11-032
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2006-11-021
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2006 Missouri Senate race?
Claire McCaskill (D) won, by about 2.3 points (D+2.3).
When was the 2006 Missouri Senate election held?
It was held in November 2006.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.