Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
D+0.9
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnPoint | D+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gallup | D+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+0.3 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | EVEN | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 7 | Big Village | EVEN | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 8 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Los Angeles Times | R+3.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+9.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Polls (28)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint | 2006-11-06 | 594 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-05 | 793 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-05 | 500 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2006-11-03 | 710 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-02 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 802 | EVEN | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-30 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-29 | 525 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2006-10-28 | 565 | EVEN | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-25 | 500 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | R+1.3 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2006-10-22 | 593 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-22 | 630 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-18 | 625 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | R+2.6 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-12 | 500 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-10 | 497 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-10-10 | 800 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-02 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2006-09-29 | 577 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-09-28 | 679 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-26 | 625 | EVEN | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | R+1.6 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-12 | 468 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-11 | 500 | D+3.0 | 1 |