Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
D+3.6
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+4.4 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | OnPoint | D+5.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+6.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gallup | D+9.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+9.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Montana State University Billings | D+11.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint | 2006-11-06 | 602 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-04 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2006-11-02 | 734 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | EVEN | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-01 | 500 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2006-10-24 | 662 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-18 | 625 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-18 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2006-10-12 | 409 | D+11.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-12 | 500 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-11 | 500 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-27 | 625 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-09-27 | 679 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-20 | 500 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-13 | 500 | D+9.0 | 8 |