← all past elections
Toss-up · 2006 Senate
Montana Senate
In the 2006 Montana Senate race, Jon Tester (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
D+3.6
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnPoint | D+5.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+6.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gallup | D+9.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+9.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Montana State University Billings | D+11.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
OnPoint2006-11-064
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2006-11-041
Gallup2006-11-028
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2006-11-011
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2006-11-013
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2006 Montana Senate race?
Jon Tester (D) won, by about 0.9 points (D+0.9).
When was the 2006 Montana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2006.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.