Actual result
D+27.8
Final polls said
D+20.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+20.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+18.7 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-16 | 500 | D+20.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-20 | 500 | D+23.0 | 5 |