Actual result
D+31.6
Final polls said
D+32.6
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | D+33.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+30.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+28.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+35.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Siena College | D+37.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | D+24.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2006-10-31 | 500 | D+37.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2006-10-31 | 503 | D+33.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 952 | D+24.3 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2006-10-17 | 475 | D+36.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-13 | 1053 | D+35.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+23.8 | 8 |
| Siena College | 2006-10-11 | 620 | D+27.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-28 | 1263 | D+35.0 | 3 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2006-09-26 | 734 | D+30.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+23.7 | 8 |
| Siena College | 2006-09-13 | 625 | D+29.0 | 3 |