Actual result
D+7.0
Final polls said
D+6.5
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quest Research Group | D+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fleming & Associates | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gallup | D+3.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+14.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallup | 2006-11-02 | 706 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| Quest Research Group | 2006-10-24 | 408 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-19 | 625 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-19 | 500 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2006-10-13 | 402 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-04 | 500 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Quest Research Group | 2006-10-03 | 459 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2006-09-29 | 699 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-27 | 625 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2006-09-17 | 600 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2006-09-17 | 578 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-13 | 500 | D+8.0 | 1 |