Actual result
R+31.3
Final polls said
R+31.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+31.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+31.1 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+32.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+30.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+37.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-31 | 625 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 402 | R+32.0 | 1 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2006-09-27 | 922 | R+37.0 | 6 |