Actual result
D+17.4
Final polls said
D+20.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+15.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+20.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+20.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Louisville Courier-Journal | D+23.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | InsiderAdvantage | D+10.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2007-11-03 | 552 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2007-11-01 | 500 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2007-10-28 | 562 | D+24.0 | 7 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2007-10-28 | 710 | D+23.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2007-10-21 | 572 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2007-10-08 | 571 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2007-09-24 | 743 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2007-09-15 | 600 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2007-09-09 | 533 | D+19.0 | 2 |