Actual result
R+17.8
Final polls said
R+21.5
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+18.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+17.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+18.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+16.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Bellwether Research & Consulting | R+21.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+22.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+23.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Howey Politics/DePauw University | R+31.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 2634 | R+23.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 900 | R+17.0 | 1 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-10-27 | 606 | R+18.0 | 0 |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2008-10-23 | 600 | R+31.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-21 | 631 | R+19.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-18 | 1411 | R+21.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-09-29 | 600 | R+22.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-28 | 687 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-17 | 500 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-09-15 | 600 | R+4.0 | 14 |
| Bellwether Research & Consulting | 2008-09-13 | 800 | R+21.0 | 3 |