Actual result
D+18.9
Final polls said
D+17.2
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+19.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+18.7 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+19.5 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 674 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1343 | D+19.5 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-25 | 672 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-14 | 700 | D+19.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-11 | 546 | D+22.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-11 | 1009 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-23 | 705 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-11 | 700 | D+15.0 | 4 |