Actual result
D+33.0
Final polls said
D+29.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+25.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Billings | D+32.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+26.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+25.6 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+15.0 | 18.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 2734 | D+26.0 | 7 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2008-10-18 | 403 | D+32.9 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-01 | 500 | D+15.0 | 18 |