Actual result
D+42.6
Final polls said
D+47.9
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+44.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+44.2 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+40.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+47.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+37.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | D+52.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | GfK Group | D+56.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+66.0 | 23.4 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-11-01 | 831 | D+47.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-29 | 600 | D+40.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 682 | D+37.0 | 6 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-28 | 600 | D+52.0 | 9 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-28 | 619 | D+51.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-25 | 698 | D+50.0 | 7 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 600 | D+56.0 | 13 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-20 | 725 | D+50.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-07 | 600 | D+39.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 647 | D+43.0 | 0 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2008-09-27 | 823 | D+66.0 | 23 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-09-23 | 600 | D+45.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-09-18 | 523 | D+49.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-14 | 600 | D+31.0 | 12 |