Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+5.0
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Washington Center for Survey Research | D+2.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elway Research | D+12.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 663 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2008-10-29 | 387 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-26 | 630 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2008-10-22 | 600 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Elway Research | 2008-10-18 | 405 | D+12.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-12 | 544 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-02 | 700 | EVEN | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-21 | 682 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-10 | 500 | R+6.0 | 12 |
| Elway Research | 2008-09-07 | 225 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-06 | 658 | R+1.0 | 7 |