Actual result
D+44.1
Final polls said
D+46.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+43.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+43.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+42.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+50.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 2128 | D+42.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-20 | 500 | D+50.0 | 6 |