Actual result
R+5.1
Final polls said
R+7.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | R+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+13.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2008-10-13 | 400 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Tarrance Group | 2008-10-12 | 300 | R+13.0 | 8 |