Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+6.0
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Connecticut | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Feldman Group | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+2.5 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | GreatBlue Research | R+10.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-13 | 602 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| University of Connecticut | 2008-10-12 | 501 | EVEN | 1 |
| University of Connecticut | 2008-09-25 | 400 | R+21.0 | 22 |
| GreatBlue Research | 2008-09-24 | 400 | R+10.0 | 11 |
| Feldman Group | 2008-09-17 | 500 | EVEN | 1 |