Actual result
R+23.1
Final polls said
R+36.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+34.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | R+34.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+34.8 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | West Chester University | R+38.9 | 15.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Chester University | 2008-10-07 | 429 | R+38.9 | 16 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-09-19 | 601 | R+34.0 | 11 |