Actual result
R+18.1
Final polls said
R+17.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+20.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+16.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+15.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Feldman Group | R+4.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-08 | 400 | R+20.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-01 | 400 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-30 | 591 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| Feldman Group | 2008-09-22 | 400 | R+4.0 | 14 |