Actual result
R+15.7
Final polls said
R+10.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The McDonald Group | R+13.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.8 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lake Research Partners | R+7.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | 2008-10-14 | 457 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| The McDonald Group | 2008-09-29 | 300 | R+13.0 | 3 |