Actual result
D+16.1
Final polls said
D+11.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+16.5 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+23.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | EMC Research | R+1.0 | 17.1 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2008-10-14 | 400 | D+23.0 | 7 |
| EMC Research | 2008-09-13 | 400 | R+1.0 | 17 |