Actual result
R+6.1
Final polls said
R+6.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | EMC Research | R+3.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | The McDonald Group | R+2.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+13.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMC Research | 2008-10-08 | 500 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2008-10-04 | 300 | R+13.0 | 7 |
| The McDonald Group | 2008-09-29 | 300 | R+2.0 | 4 |