Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Kitchens Group | D+4.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+11.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-10-21 | 402 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| The Kitchens Group | 2008-09-05 | 500 | D+4.0 | 0 |