Actual result
D+23.9
Final polls said
D+17.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+21.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+19.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+13.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 21.9 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-20 | 623 | D+13.0 | 11 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2008-10-15 | 400 | D+21.0 | 3 |
| Impact Research | 2008-10-12 | 400 | D+19.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-09-17 | 400 | D+2.0 | 22 |
| Impact Research | 2008-09-15 | 400 | D+8.0 | 16 |