Actual result
D+18.7
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+16.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+15.4 | 3.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-21 | 612 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-14 | 613 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-06 | 646 | D+8.0 | 11 |