Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
R+1.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.6 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+8.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | National Research | R+10.0 | 12.3 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-10-06 | 402 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| National Research | 2008-09-15 | 300 | R+10.0 | 12 |