Actual result
R+31.7
Final polls said
R+29.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Billings | R+33.9 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+25.5 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+25.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 2734 | R+25.0 | 7 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2008-10-18 | 403 | R+33.9 | 2 |