Actual result
D+10.8
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+5.6 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+3.0 | 13.8 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-26 | 1589 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 609 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| GQR | 2008-09-28 | 400 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-09-24 | 400 | R+3.0 | 14 |