Actual result
D+5.9
Final polls said
D+5.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+6.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+5.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-11-01 | 413 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-28 | 308 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-25 | 341 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-20 | 358 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 628 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2008-09-27 | 411 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-09-18 | 252 | R+3.0 | 9 |