Actual result
D+15.0
Final polls said
D+24.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+18.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+20.9 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+21.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+4.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-11-01 | 404 | D+21.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-28 | 303 | D+28.0 | 13 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-25 | 344 | D+22.0 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-20 | 349 | D+26.0 | 11 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-09-18 | 271 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-09-16 | 300 | D+4.0 | 11 |
| Impact Research | 2008-09-16 | 500 | D+18.0 | 3 |