Actual result
D+4.2
Final polls said
D+8.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+8.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | R+1.4 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+3.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+4.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grove Insight | 2008-10-15 | 400 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-10-02 | 400 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2008-10-01 | 430 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-19 | 400 | R+1.4 | 6 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2008-09-08 | 300 | R+4.0 | 8 |