Actual result
R+8.0
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Research | R+9.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+2.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 17.0 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Research | 2008-10-21 | 300 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-10-08 | 406 | D+9.0 | 17 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2008-10-01 | 410 | R+4.0 | 4 |