Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+9.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.2 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-08 | 236 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-09-23 | 400 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Impact Research | 2008-09-23 | 500 | D+9.0 | 4 |