Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+6.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+5.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 602 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-09-30 | 403 | D+5.0 | 0 |