Actual result
R+7.4
Final polls said
R+4.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Momentum Analysis | R+1.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum Analysis | 2008-09-29 | 400 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-20 | 627 | R+8.0 | 1 |