Actual result
D+12.7
Final polls said
D+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Momentum Analysis | D+14.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.1 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lycoming College Polling Institute | D+15.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+15.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lycoming College Polling Institute | 2008-10-21 | 441 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2008-10-02 | 713 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Momentum Analysis | 2008-09-30 | 400 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Lycoming College Polling Institute | 2008-09-23 | 460 | D+10.0 | 3 |