Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.6 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-22 | 400 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-27 | 618 | D+4.0 | 2 |