Actual result
D+11.7
Final polls said
D+12.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+12.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+10.7 | 1.0 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2008-10-08 | 500 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 614 | D+12.0 | 0 |