Actual result
R+7.1
Final polls said
R+8.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | EVEN | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | R+17.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-21 | 404 | R+17.0 | 10 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-10-19 | 400 | EVEN | 7 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-10-07 | 400 | R+1.0 | 6 |