Actual result
R+34.4
Final polls said
R+29.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+33.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+29.8 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+25.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2008-10-27 | 377 | R+33.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-24 | 400 | R+25.0 | 9 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2008-09-10 | 197 | R+41.0 | 7 |