Actual result
D+28.9
Final polls said
D+33.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+33.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+27.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+33.3 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Dan Jones & Associates | D+39.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2008-10-27 | 445 | D+39.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-24 | 400 | D+27.0 | 2 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2008-09-10 | 213 | D+35.0 | 6 |