Actual result
R+37.3
Final polls said
R+34.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+33.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+35.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+34.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+33.1 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2008-10-27 | 383 | R+34.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-24 | 400 | R+35.0 | 2 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2008-09-10 | 191 | R+42.0 | 5 |