Actual result
D+4.9
Final polls said
R+5.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+6.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+5.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.2 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2008-10-14 | 400 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2008-09-21 | 400 | R+5.0 | 10 |