Actual result
D+0.2
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+6.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.2 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+8.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 640 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-10-08 | 400 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-06 | 680 | R+13.0 | 13 |