Actual result
R+5.6
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+3.0
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+5.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Lake Research Partners | D+7.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-20 | 442 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2008-10-13 | 500 | D+7.0 | 13 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2008-10-08 | 400 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-08 | 686 | R+10.0 | 4 |