Actual result
D+8.1
Final polls said
D+4.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.3 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-08 | 400 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 616 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-09-16 | 400 | D+1.0 | 7 |