Actual result
R+21.6
Final polls said
R+21.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+22.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+21.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Capital Survey Research Center | R+20.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+23.6 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+25.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+18.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of South Alabama Polling Group | R+27.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 650 | R+25.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 452 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Capital Survey Research Center | 2008-10-15 | 606 | R+20.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-08 | 697 | R+27.0 | 5 |
| Capital Survey Research Center | 2008-10-04 | 554 | R+20.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-22 | 500 | R+21.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-16 | 655 | R+30.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | R+22.0 | 0 |
| University of South Alabama Polling Group | 2008-09-12 | 406 | R+27.0 | 5 |
| Capital Survey Research Center | 2008-09-06 | 606 | R+20.0 | 2 |