Actual result
D+22.4
Final polls said
D+23.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+22.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+21.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Connecticut | D+25.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+17.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+16.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+15.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 704 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| University of Connecticut | 2008-10-20 | 502 | D+25.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-14 | 500 | D+17.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-24 | 686 | D+16.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-18 | 600 | D+15.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-16 | 500 | D+12.0 | 10 |