Actual result
D+25.0
Final polls said
D+26.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+25.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+25.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+22.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+30.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+20.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | West Chester University | D+18.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+15.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | D+11.0 | 14.0 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 657 | D+30.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 346 | D+22.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-10 | 500 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| West Chester University | 2008-10-07 | 429 | D+18.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-22 | 703 | D+20.0 | 5 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-09-19 | 601 | D+20.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-14 | 600 | D+11.0 | 14 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-13 | 500 | D+12.0 | 13 |